NBA Preview

Now that baseball is over, and the NBA regular season begins in 2 days, there are some questions that I am asking going into the 2012-2013 season.

How will Ray Allen enjoy his return to Boston?  I know, I know...it’s a business, it’s only a job.  But there’s lots of things I wouldn’t do at my job - even for more money.  When Ray Allen took his crooked smirk to South Beach he crossed the line.  Ray Allen is going to get absolutely hammered by the Boston fans, and he deserves every ounce of it.  

Can Jeremy Lin be an All-Star in Houston?  If you thought Linsanity was wild in NYC, you should try Beijing.  Lin Shu Hao surpassed Kobe and Lebron status in China - and that is a huge statement.  China already loves the Rockets (which is a big reason Tracy McGrady decided to sign in China this year and is obviously the reason Houston decided to pony up for Lin) but does Lin have any chance of succeeding with that lineup?  If they would have won the Howard sweepstakes I would have said yes, but not now.  They will love him in China regardless.

There's nowhere to go but up, but how high can the Bobcats rise?  After the worst winning percentage in the history of the NBA it is inconceivable that the Bobcats can get any worse.  No one is really asking this question but I live in NC now so I am hoping for some watchable basketball in Charlotte in the not-too-distant future.

Will Pau Gasol still be the best big man in LA?  Ok, honestly, I don’t really think this is going to happen but I really wish it would.  I don’t hate the Lakers like most people do - but I hate Dwight Howard.  I used to like Dwight Howard.   I even had Dwight flair on my Facebook flair board back in the day.  He went south fast in the reputation department.  He has possibly had the worst looking free agency (and pre-free agency) that anyone not named Lebron James has had ever.  The superstar who makes it known well in advance that he wants to be traded is bad, but Howard still had a lot of miles left on his contract.  Gets his coach fired, still has the best smile in the NBA, team hits the tank and looks embarrassing some nights.  It makes you think it is more of a campaigning politician smile and less an I-love-this game smile.  If a superstar demanding to be traded is bad, said superstar who then says he will only go to one of two cities in that trade should draw the ire of every basketball fan in North America.  Because he is the thing with choosing your team, when was the last time anyone ever said, “Milwaukee or nothing” in that situation.  Is the NBA, even with the presence of a salary cap, going to become the English Premier League with a few power clubs and everyone else fighting for 4th and 5th?  If this continues will we ever see another San Antonio or Detroit based champion?  If Howard ends up with the Nets then he is only hated in Orlando.  He ends up with the Lakers and he has just crossed over into territory that is only understood by John Rocker, Barry Bonds, and Mike Vick - national villain.  And here’s another thing that should anger basketball fans around the world -   It was a huge signing, but not an enormous upgrade.  The Lakers just signed the best big man in the league, but they just traded the 2nd best big man in the league.  Granted, there is a large gap between Howard and Bynum, I was really looking forward to seeing Nash lead the Lakers into the finals, now Nash will only get a fraction of that credit when the Lakers hoist another banner into the rafter of the Staples Center.  This will not be the last time you will read these words on this blog this year - man I hate Dwight Howard. 

Can the Spurs keep the magic going?  I was shocked to see OKC come back and beat the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals lost year.  The Spurs looked as good as any team has ever going into that series.  The question at that point was how many games the Heat could eek out against the steamrolling Spurs.  We didn’t even ask this question at the beginning of last year because of how the Spurs finished in 2011.  It was just assumed by everyone that their window had closed.  And now...?

What will be Kevin Durant’s response after some weaknesses were exposed in the Finals?  Durant should repeat as scoring leader.  Kobe has more points to share this year and Durant has less (Harden was traded to Houston today).  I would have said that Lebron isn’t interested in the title but he just publicly made statements this week that he wants to be known as the best ever, and I am becoming a believer in the idea that Lebron can do whatever he decides to do.  I still think Lebron passes too much to win this crown, but Durant had some weaknesses exposed against Miami this summer.  Will teams try to expose his being “soft”?  It didn’t work in London, that’s for sure.  And Durant’s defensive shortcoming shouldn’t change the fact that this guy can make any shot on the court with that tall, quick, and beautiful stroke.  I don’t know that answer to these questions but I do know that it will be real fun watching.

How awesome will the Michael Beasly/Luis Scola connection look in PHX orange?  Well..as a long-time and hardcore Suns fan I have to feign excitement about something this season.  It would have felt too pessimistic to ask how many ping pong balls Phoenix gets in the Lottery.

What is Steve Nash’s ceiling now that he is finally playing with a big man?  (Full disclosure - not only am I a Suns fan, but I have a not-so-secret man crush on Steve Nash)  The only true big man Nash has ever played with is Marcin Gortat.  Dirk in Dallas and Amare in Phoenix were tall but neither ever really played like a big man.  Now he will have 1.5 big men in LA to play with.  While I miss the 7-seconds-or-less Suns and I will always wonder what could have been if they would have held on to Joe Johnson and kept what they had instead of dismantling them piece-by-piece eventually to stoop so low as to sign Shaq, I think Nash will be off the charts good with in LA.  Nash lead the break better than anyone in history not named Magic, but I have no doubt that he can adapt to the tools he will have in LA.  I don’t believe Mike Brown can coach his way out of a paper bag, but lucky for him it is a very thin and soggy paper bag in LA.  With Nash in charge, Brown will just have to try not to get in the way.  And has any player in history ever had an easier chance of succeeding than Dwight Howard?  Nash alone will make him 5 points a game better, and Gasol is the best passing 7 footer in the game.  I think the Lakers were going to win the West even without Howard.  Nash was 1 win against Utah away from single handedly leading the otherwise junior varsity Suns last year to the playoffs.   If his spinal surgeon did a halfway decent job then my money is on LA to prevent Lebron’s repeat.    However, the question I am most looking forward to seeing anwered this NBA season is...

Can Lebron really do whatever he wants to do? - Don’t take it for granted folks.  Enjoy it while it lasts.

The Power of Sorry

Here we go again - another performance enhancing drug scandal, and another athlete swearing his innocence.  This time it is different …way different.  Lance Armstrong, prior to the last few months of allegations and testimonies, was the greatest sports story, well, maybe ever.  This guy was infinitely more courageous than anyone else in an extremely courageous sport.  He beat cancer.  Then, after having his body ravaged by cancer and chemotherapy, he became the best there ever was in a sport which requires its champions to absolutely pound their bodies and their wills into submission.  He is only the 2^nd American cyclist ever to win the Tour de France.  Then he just kept winning…and winning…7 straight times!  In the process he started what has to be the most successful cancer research foundation in the history of the disease.  He didn’t just start a foundation, he started a movement.  Lance was so cool that he even got fat America riding bicycles again.  

In a sport that has historically had more doping than any other sport, Lance was clean.  He was winning in a dirty sport.  He had to have been the most tested athlete in the world.  This guy peed in more cups and gave blood samples more than any athlete…ever.  

So what happened?  How did we get from there to here?  As they say, the cheaters are always one step ahead of the testers.  We have seen also that he not only cheated, but he was a mastermind in doing so.  Another factor is this:  Never has there ever been a governing body who wanted their athlete to NOT test positive more than the cycling powers-that-be.  They needed this guy.  

And now we are faced with a mountain of evidence.  Heck, forget about the science of testing and blood and urine and science, etc., 11 of his former teammates have testified against him.  A serious question to be raised is, “where was this evidence 5 years ago?”  

But here is what causes me to scratch my head as I follow this story – Lance still claims he is innocent!

He has said that he is going to give up fighting, but still claims that he is innocent.  I don’t know who he thinks he’s kidding.  He resigned his position at Livestrong, they are taking away his Tour victories, even Nike gave him the boot (Nike didn’t even give Tiger the boot – more on him later).  In light of all of this, the question that must be asked is what do we, the court of public opinion, do with Lance Armstrong now?  Hero?  Cheater?  Hero who cheated?  Cheater who is still a hero because he beat cancer and raised hundreds of millions of dollars for cancer?  Time will tell about the legacy of Lance Armstrong but I think there is something Lance, and all of us, can learn by looking at some case studies:   

Barry Bonds – First off, Barry Bonds is no Lance Armstrong.  Not only did all of America want him to be guilty, but they we also wanted him to fail.  He did not fail, he has kind of been found guilty, and like Armstrong, he still claims his innocence.  Now I have said many times that I think steroids in baseball is the most overrated news story of the last decade (I can say that now because Y2K was 12 years ago).  Steroids in cycling is a different story.  Baseball players chew tobacco and spit sunflower while working their craft, cyclists put their bodies through Hell, and then keep going.  Bonds without the ‘roids was still great…Lance without the ‘roids…?  Baseball fans hate Bonds not because of what he did to their team, but because of what he did to Hank, Willie, and the Babe.  Barry had an amazing way of being the victim and the villain at the same time.  He desecrated baseball’s most sacred records and makes us feel like the bad guys for being suspicious.  The reason Barry is hated is not because he claims his innocence, it is not because he has not apologized, its not even so much because he cheated.  He is hated because he is a prick.  But even bad guys who apologize get a second chance with America (see Tiger example below).  Ultimately, because Barry is Barry, he will always be the bad guy, and that will be his legacy.  

Roger Clemens – Clemens is a difficult case because he never tested positive, the feds threw millions of dollars into a case against him and came up with nothing, and he still swears that his heroics at an advanced age are due to his unmatched work ethic.  Like Armstrong, Clemens was ratted out by a teammate.  Unlike Armstrong, the evidence is not a slam dunk.  But here is the point of the whole article – what if Armstrong, Bonds, Clemens, etc. not only confessed their guilt, but gave a heartfelt explanation and apology?  We know they are guilty, their self-proclaimed innocence just angers us further, so would we judge them the same if they apologized?  If there is one thing I have learned about America it is that we love giving a second chance to the truly repentant.  

Tiger Woods – Tiger is guilty of something significantly more serious than using PED’s.  Armstrong, Bonds, Clemens, who can fault these guys for wanting to win that badly.  Tiger is a scumbag.  He destroyed lives.  Barry and the Rocket have not done that.  Tiger did not have the privilege of being able to deny what he was being accused of.  But here is the difference – Tiger said he was sorry.  Tiger is also no Lance Armstrong.  The guy has to be (scandal aside) the most boring off-the-field athlete in professional sports.  He cheated on his wife and his child with multiple women.  So why is Tiger Woods cheered by golf fans today?  America loves the apology.  America loves the 2^nd chance.  America forgives those who ask for forgiveness.

Michael Vick – Vick is another case of America’s willingness to forgive.  I would also say that Mike Vick’s crime was much more heinous than Bonds’, but after doing his time behind bars Vick was welcomed back with open arms by the fans of Philadelphia.  And this wasn’t just Philly fans who were rooting for Vick, I got the feeling that most of America wanted him to succeed.  Why?  There is power in apology.

We could look at many more case studies of cheaters.  We could look at ARod's sort-of-apology, or Ryan Braun getting away with winning the MVP award, testing positive for PED's, then getting off on a technicality (and what to do with his 2012 season which was as good as his 2011?).   We could look at Pete Rose who has pretty much been forgiven in the court of public opinion, but not the court of the commissioners office.  But the point in all these examples is the power of "sorry".  America loves Lance Armstrong.  Even still today.  If he stood up manned up, faced the public and said he was sorry I believe his legacy would be different.  If he told us he was sorry, that he cheated in a sport where everyone was dirty, that he had been through hell and just wanted to win, that he shouldn't have done it, and that he wants America and the world to forgive him - we will.  USADA and whoever it was that had the authority to strip him of his 7 Tour titles will not forgive him, but we will.  We will still hold him up as the best - the best cheater in a sport of cheaters, but still the best.  He was still able to put his body through something that I don't want to put my body through.  He was still able to become the most (drug aided) superhuman in a sport which required one to be a (drug aided) superhuman.  

I still like Lance.  I still respect his accomplishment.  He still won 7 Tours in my book.  I would respect him more if he owned up to his cheating, apologized, and was honest with those of us who bought yellow wrist bands, saved copies of Sports Illustrated with his picture on the cover, read his book, got excited to watch him race, and cheered his victories.

The Prophetic All-Star Game

I love the MLB All-Star Game.

Following the All-Star tie game debacle in Milwaukee where Bud Selig couldn't have looked worse*, MLB made a knee jerk decision to try to save face and awarded World Series home field advantage to the All-Star game winner.  While almost all writers, talk show hosts, etc. have voiced vehement objections to giving any value to an exhibition game, I love the rule.  Here's why:  Before the rule change home field advantage went to the team with the better record.  While that might seem fair enough, it was very much an arbitrary measuring stick due to the fact that the 2 teams' schedules were completely different.  I have always rooted for the NL in the All-Star Game since I am a Dodgers fan, but now it matters - and I love it.  This postseason could bring out 2 almost prophetic results from this year's NL victory in the mid-summer classic.

#1 - The Ironic - You would have to look real hard to find someone who would say that anyone not named Justin Verlander is the best pitcher in baseball.  Last year's Cy Young and MVP award winner, and likely this year's AL Cy Young winner, was named the starter for the All-Star game due to his stellar performance in the first half of the season.  His second half performance was also stellar.  His worst start of the season was in the All-Star Game - 1 IP, 4H, 2BB, 5R all earned, and the AL lost 8-0.  The Tigers will almost certainly represent the AL in the World Series (leading the Yankees 3-0), and unless the Yankees can push the Tigers to a game 7 Justin Verlander will be starting game 1 of the 2012 World Series on the road...and he has no one to blame but himself.

#2 - The Tragic - The MVP of the aforementioned All-Star game was Melky Cabrera.  Melky was 2 for 3 with 2 runs scored and 2 RBI that evening.  Shortly thereafter he was suspended 50 games for a violation of the league's drug policy.**  If the Giants beat the Cardinals in the NLCS they will enjoy home field advantage for this year's World Series thanks to the efforts of the All-Star game MVP, and convicted cheater - Melky Cabrera.    

* Who would have thought then with steroids and All-Star game ties that in 2012 Bud Selig would look like the model commissioner with dictator Roger Goodell's authority being overturned by judges, David Stern vetoing trades, and Gary Betman (scratching my head and not being able to generate enough hyperbole to describe his tenure).  

**(Full Disclosure - I HATE the Giants)  To the Giants' credit, they played much better this season after Melky's suspension, thanks mostly to Buster Posey's monster 2nd half.  Also to the Giants' credit, Cabrera's 50 game suspension is up and they have told him to take a hike.  They have not reinstated him for the playoffs and it appears they have cut all ties with him.  Surely someone will pick him up next year but it will not be the Giants.

Why Yadier Molina is the NL MVP

I don't get a vote for the MVP.  Maybe after they read my blog they will give me a vote as one of the Baseball Writers of America.  If I had a vote this year it would go to Yadier Molina.  I wouldn't fault anyone for voting for Buster Posey, Ryan Braun, or Andrew McCutcheon, but my vote is for Molina.  Here's why:
1.  Braun and McCutcheon had fantastic seasons, but they were not valuable enough to get their teams into the postseason.  I know this is completely unfair, especially considering that McCutcheon (at least until August) and Braun almost singlehandedly got their teams into October baseball.  The Cardinals won the Wild Card, and Molina is the biggest reason why.  (This argument, of course, also works for Posey)
2.  The numbers - His traditional season numbers were .315 avg, 22 HR, 76 RBI.  These numbers are not herculean, but they are very good considering...
3.  ...he played 136 games this year as catcher.  Catcher is the most underrated position in sports.  The pitcher makes the pitches but the catcher calls the game.  Yadier Molina gets more out of his pitchers than any other catcher in baseball.  Kyle Lohse and Lance Lynn combined for 34 wins in 2012!  I realize that the catcher argument could be made for Posey, whose offensive numbers were much better than Molina's (.336, 24, 103).  However, Molina caught 25 more games than Posey (who played a bit of 1B and even 3 games of DH), and plays catcher much better than Posey.  They threw out roughly the same number of would be base stealers but Posey had almost 3x as many runners steal safely (Posey-87, Molina 38).
4.  Here is what, in my opinion, puts Molina over the top.  He played catcher for a team who lost its manager from last year, has a first year manager this year, lost the 2nd best offensive player of my lifetime in the offseason, lost his best pitcher (Chris Carpenter - only pitched 17 innings) to injury, had his 2nd best pitcher (Wainwright) returning from over a year off, lost their 2nd best offensive player from '11 (L. Berkman) to a knee injury, and still led them to the postseason.

Posey hit more home runs and his team won more games, but the MVP is not about numbers, it is about value.  No player was more valuable to his team this year.  Forget about stats like WAR (wins above replacement), Molina leads the league in just about every category which cannot be quantified with statistics.

"I don't believe what I just saw!"

Why?  Because my wife doesn't want to hear it, my kids aren't old enough to care (yet), and I have to tell somebody.

Title - I decided today, on the 24th anniversary, that Kirk Gibson's 3-2 homerun into the right field pavilion of Dodger Stadium off of Dennis Eckersley has been the greatest moment of my sports viewing career.  I was 10.  It probably should have been the worst managerial decision in World Series history.  After the first few pitches everyone in America was embarrassed for Tommy Lasorda.  He ended up looking like a genius.

Gibson didn't have another at bat the rest of the Series.

I hope that these short essays and anecdotes can every once in a while find a lucky swing and limp around the bases pumping their fists.  Chances are, most of them will end up more like the first few pitches which Gibby dinged in the dirt while he grimaced in pain.  Either way, my wife doesn't care to hear it.  I'm glad you do.