The ESPN Outside the Lines report is that disciplinary action for multiple players, possibly even a few dozen, will be pursued by Major League Baseball based on the testimony of Tony Bosch, director of Biogenesis. You have probably heard some of the names being thrown around – Ryan Braun, Nelson Cruz, Alex Rodriguez, etc. How MLB will proceed with the legal process, with contracts, suspensions, we can only guess. And how the MLB Players Union will respond is also only speculation at this point. There are only a few ways this can go from here and I want to examine those possible scenarios because this could go well for baseball…or it could be a complete disaster. The players’ reputations in the court of public opinion are irreparably damaged, there is no doubt about that. There is no scenario I can envision where the specific players will be winners. However, there are a few scenarios in which this could be a win for MLB.
This could go well for MLB if…
- …Tony Bosch turns out to be competent and helpful. MLB has not had the best of luck when it comes to shady people in shady businesses being their chief witnesses (see: Brian Mcnamee). It is for this reason alone that I would say that if I were the Commissioner this is probably not a can I want to open. If I am Major League Baseball and I am about to tackle the biggest potential case regarding the biggest negative issue facing my sport, I don’t know that I would take that fight into the public arena (not to mention the inevitable battle with the Player’s Union – more on that later) putting all of my eggs in the basket of a drug dealer. Little is known about Tony Bosch at this point except for one glaring thing – he gave illegal drugs to rich guys to use illegally so that they could get stronger and richer. Integrity is certainly not this guy’s first foot forward. I can’t imagine it being too difficult for a cross-examiner to bring his character into question (think Mark Furman).
- …ARod, Braun, Cruz, et al. get 100 game suspensions (side note – that would also go well for the Yankees who, at this point, would love to see the cancer that is ARod just go away). They’re guilty. Yes, you too Braun. Getting off on a technicality does not make you a clean player. We all know they’re guilty, so this would help the rest of us with the healing process. For this information to linger out there forever and these players never to be punished for it (except, of course, for them being denied Cooperstown, which at this point only applies to Rodriguez) just seems wrong. I mean think about it, Nelson Cruz is playing in tonight’s game vs. the Red Sox. That is just weird.
- …the Player’s Union is on their side. A part of me says, “this is NEVER going to happen.” But then I remember what happened in the last strike, and what has happened in every PED decision that has happened since then and I see a Player’s Union that knows that it needs to clean up its image even to go so far as baseball now having the toughest testing policy of all the major North American team sports leagues. More on this issue later.
- …contracts are legally allowed to be voided. Let me start by saying that this is the biggest stretch in this whole discussion. It is not going to happen. But what if it did? For ARod to be suspended 50 or 100 games that would be a big deal. If here lost 100 games without pay that would cost him roughly $18 million. If his contract was voided it would cost him over $100 million. And this is the crux of the steroid issue. Melky Cabrera tested positive last year and served a 50 game suspension. Let’s total up all of the money that Melky made before testing positive, and add that to the contract he has signed with the Blue Jays. Dangle that figure in front of any high schooler, college ballplayer, or minor leaguer and tell them that they can have it, with the only negative being you may get caught and serve a 50 game suspension at some point. Who is not going to take it? Let’s ask this hypothetical question just for fun - imagine ARod’s 10 year $275 million contract was voided and he became a free agent; what would his next contract be worth? Maybe the Blue Jays would take him – 2 years, $15 million tops. And by the way, has anybody in the history of the world made more of a mess of an opportunity as golden as ARod’s? Remember when the discussion was it didn’t matter where Bonds set the bar because Alex was going to come in right behind him and be the nice guy who will break that scumbag’s record?
This could be a nightmare for MLB if…
- …they pursue suspensions for 25 or so players, fight appeals from the Player’s Union, fight the battles in court, and lose. It was a huge blow to MLB when (recently elected National League MVP) Ryan Braun won his appeal based on someone’s mishandling of his pee. We have also seen the ineptitude of the federal government in their pursuit of Roger Clemens and even cycling inability to ever get a positive test out of Lance Armstrong. Imagine if Bosch sings like a canary, the names of a couple dozen players are splashed all over the media, yet the courts determine that MLB can legally do nothing with his testimony. What a disaster that would be.
