My Hall of Fame Ballot

The ballots are out.

This is why I began writing about sports.  This is the single funnest discussion in all of sports.  Five years ago we took my Father to Cooperstown and had this discussion for 3 days straight.  The Hall of Fame was created to compare apples and oranges, to make objective a discussion which is truly subjective.  The beauty of the Hall of Fame is that it draws a line in the sand and gives absolutely no criteria to define where that line is to be drawn except for the definition itself - Hall of Fame.  Where is the line drawn?  It is drawn between the Hall of Famers and the non-Hall of Famers.  Wait, you can’t use the word you are defining in the definition.  When defining Hall of Fame criteria you have to.  

There are some criteria that are almost definite lines in the sand.  For example, of all HOF eligible players who have amassed 3,000 hits all of them are in the Hall except for Pete Rose (banned) and Rafael Palmeiro (tested positive for PED’s).  This looks real good for Craig Biggio this year - 3,060.  If we were to have this discussion 10 years ago we would have said the same thing about 500 home runs.  This of course being the stat most affected by PED’s (more on them later), a HR is not what it used to be.  There are now 2 eligible 500 HR Club members not in the Hall - McGwire (583) and Palmeiro (569).  As we look ahead to the next few years and see names like Jim Thome and Gary Sheffield the 500 HR is no longer a definite line in the sand.  This does not bode well for this year’s hopefuls who are Steroid Era guys who are just short of the 500 mark - McGriff (493) and Bagwell (449).  On the pitching side, 300 wins still is, and should be, an automatic entry in the HOF stat.  However, Roger Clemens will be testing that line this year also.  

So let’s get into the first determining factor for this year’s vote - Steroids.  The voters how proved that they are going to make the players pay for their (alleged, accused, or tested positive) sins.   Mark McGwire should be a first ballot Hall of Famer, and has only garnered 19.5% of the vote (75% gets one inducted in the Hall).  Palmeiro and Bagwell are already borderline guys but Bagwell is guilty by association and Palmeiro is guilty by testing positive, therefore there is little to no chance that they will ever be inducted.

Here is how I will decide my vote in regards to PED’s - I will take the entire era, call it the steroid era, and judge the players based on their peers.  Accused, tested positive, or otherwise, I will assume that everyone was doing it and judge their performance on the field during that era.  Ballots went out this week and are due on Monday, so with this as my criteria here is my ballot. 

IN (in order) - Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire, Mike Piazza, Craig Biggio, and Sammy Sosa.  

MAYBE NEXT YEAR (in order) - Rafael Palmeiro, Curt Schilling, Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, Larry Walker

Out (in order) - Jack Morris, Lee Smith, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff

My Justification - I love the sabermetrics of baseball but I will leave out of this discussion.  In fact, I will leave most stats out of this discussion because I am a firm believer is this as a measurement - Is _________ a Hall of Famer?

IN

Barry Bonds - The 2nd greatest offensive player ever.  Bonds is one of eight players ever to join the 300HR/300SB club.  He is the only player in the 400/400 club, so of course he is the only player in the 500/500 club with 14 SB and 262 HR to spare.  

Roger Clemens - With pitcher especially we have to look at both peak quality and longevity, the classic Sandy Koufax vs. Nolan Ryan debate.  In the combination of peak quality and longevity Clemens would rank in the top 3 pitchers of all time, alongside Greg Maddux and Walter Johnson.   

Mark McGwire - In 1999 someone made a video naming the All-Century Team.  In 100 years of baseball they named the 2 All-Century first basemen as Lou Gehrig and Mark McGwire - one of the 2 received less than 20% of the vote to be inducted into the Hall of Fame.  The writers should take their hypocritical pens and mark “yes” for McGwire this weekend.  

Mike Piazza - Offensively speaking he was head and shoulders above anyone who has ever put on the shinguards.

Craig Biggio - Of everyone on my “IN” list Biggio is the one who does not stand out in the that-guy-is-a-Hall-of-Famer measurement; unless you are counting dirt on the jersey.  He was a very good player for a long time, the best 2B in the NL for a decade, has 3,000 hits, and put up good non-steroid numbers in the steroid era.

Sammy Sosa - A home run is not what it used to be, but Sosa clipped off 66, 63, 50, 64, 49 over a 5 year span.  Lest you incorrectly remember Sosa as a one-dimensional player, he batted .306 over that same span.   

MAYBE NEXT YEAR

Rafael Palmeiro - These other Steroid guys need to be sorted out before Palmeiro is even considered.  And with more guys coming on the list every year, it may be a while.  His actual positive test may eliminate him for good, but how many other guys out there have 500HR and 3,000 hits?  Three (Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Eddie Murray - decent company)

Curt Schilling - Good regular season numbers, fantastic post-season numbers (11-2, 2.23 ERA in 19 postseason starts) and great post-season moments.  Schilling is a tricky one and may also benefit from the steroid fallout.

                                                                      The Bloody Sock is at Cooperstown, will Schilling join it?

Jeff Bagwell - A big reason why many of the names at the bottom of this article are not at the top  of this article is the best-of-your-time-at-your-position argument.  This same argument goes against Palmeiro - they were never the best at their position.  Too many good 1B, too many good home run hitter during their time.  Sorry guys.

Tim Raines - His pre-steroid numbers look better and better every year, but he is now too far removed.  Was a great lead off hitter who falls a little short.

Larry Walker - Larry Walker doesn’t scream Hall of Fame, but his numbers are certainly there.  The sabermetricians certainly do like Walker.  According to Bill James’ (pause for a moment of silent honor to the godfather of sabermetrics) HOF meter Walker scores a 148, with a score of 100 being the likely-to-be-inducted line.

OUT

Jack Morris - I am not a fan of voting players into the Hall of the 14th ballot.  He has done nothing over the last 19 years to improve his case for induction.  However, ironically, this may just be his year.  He may get the up-yours-steroid-boys vote from some writers.

Lee Smith - Closer is one of the 2 most overrated positions in sports** so Saves do not get my vote.

Edgar Martinez - Edgar was a great designated hitter in Seattle.  The only way for a DH to make the HOF is if his offensive numbers are off-the-charts, since, after all, he is only half a player*, and Edgar’s offensive numbers are not off-the-charts.

Fred McGriff - Too many good first basemen who could hit home runs.  Does anyone look at Fred McGriff and have the word great come to mind?

* It will come out every once in a while - I HATE the designated hitter rule.

**  Football Running Back is the other.  Catcher and Offensive Lineman being to 2 most underrated.