2013 Baseball Prognostications

NL Division Winner

• Nationals - I can’t imagine the Nats not being better than last year, and they won 98 games last year.  
• Reds - The Reds benefited from a starting rotation that had a combined 0 trips to the DL last year; many of those guys also had career years.  Surely that can’t be repeated but no one else in the NL Central scares me if I’m the Reds.  The Cardinals’ midas touch can’t continue forever...can it?
• Dodgers - The embarrassment of riches in the starting rotation is a great problem to have when 1) the season is 162 games long, 2) one of the guys you are counting on is a rookie from Korea, and 3) another you are counting on is named Josh Beckett.  If Crawford can get on base and Hanley can get healthy then Gonzalez could be an MVP type guy in that lineup.
• WC - Giants - I can’t imagine them winning the west with that (lack of) offense.  But, I’ve said that a few times in the last 3 years (Man! I hate the Giants).
• WC - Braves - One wild card has to come from the NL East where your schedule is weighted heavily toward games against the Mets and Marlins.  

AL Division Winners

• Rays - They keep doing it, and doing it, and doing it well.  The Yankees are scraping the bottom of the barrel, the Red Sox are rebuilding a bit, and those teams that are assembled in one offseason with lots of additions (Blue Jays) usually don’t pan out too well in the first season (exception - ’97 Marlins).  The Orioles can’t possibly do it again with that starting pitching rotation.  
• Tigers - I would be surprised if they made the World Series again but I would very surprised if they did not win the AL Central again.
• Angels - What an absolute nightmare for opposing pitchers.  My pick to win the AL
• WC - A’s - I don’t analyze the A’s, I just trust them.
• WC - Someone from the AL Central - Sox? Royals? Indians?  I just don’t see anyone from the east doing it.  Things could be much better in Cleveland and KC.  I could see any one of these teams breaking out, and I could see each of them losing 90 games.

World Series - Angles over the Dodgers

AL MVP - Cabrera - In the last 4 years he has not hit under .320, or under 103 RBI. Or under 30 HR.  He has also averaged 158.3 games played over the last 9 years.  He is the safest bet for production of any player in baseball.  Oh yeah, and he won the triple crown last year.  

NL MVP - Votto - Votto is a joy to watch hit, but when you look at his advanced numbers it gets just plain silly.  He has popped up 4 times...in his career! (I had to confirm this one).  According to Tom Verducci, he hits .300 when falling behind in the count (league average is .198).  Braun will probably have higher numbers in the sexy statistics but I don’t see Braun leading his team to the playoffs.  Votto has the potential to put up epic numbers, and I fully anticipate him being the most valuable player on a playoff team, which has proven to matter to voters in recent years.

AL Cy - J. Verlander - Best pitcher in the AL, not even close.

NL Cy - C. Kershaw - Best pitcher in baseball, Verlander is the only one who is even close.

AL ROY - Wil Myers (TB) - I am hoping the Rays don’t call him up too soon as he will be playing AAA ball about 10 miles from my house.

NL ROY - Gerrit Cole (Pit) - If there is ever a place a rookie can stand out it is in the Pirates starting rotation.  Compared to Pirates starting pitchers over the last, oh... 20 years, it won’t take much to look good.