Baseball’s Night of Long Knives

Baseball’s Night of Long Knives

The Sportscenter alert on my phone informed me that an a decision in the Biogenesis case involving Alex Rodriguez, Bartolo Colon, Jhonny Peralta, Nelson Cruz, and 8 other major leaguers will be announced tomorrow.  It feels like this is Bud Selig’s Night of Long Knives.  Or, to use a Hollywood analogy, Bud is Michael Corleone in the final scene of the Godfather offing the heads of the heads of the five families, and thus putting an end to it all.  

It just feels different this time.

It’s not the baseball steroid debate of the 90’s when baseball was fighting for testing (because they knew the players were using) and the players’ union was fighting testing (because they knew the players were using).  We have come a long way since then.

It’s not even the baseball steroid debate of Bonds vs. Aaron where there was a sense that everyone knew Bonds was cheating but we dealt with it as left over residue for the “steroid era” where everyone was doing it, there was no testing, reporters turned a blind eye, and we the fans cheered on the long ball.  The Bonds situation was baseball getting what it deserved.  

There is an optimistic part of me that sees this Biogenesis case as the Godfather finishing it.  After Alex Rodriguez gets out of the game (which is going to happen, it will happen maybe even tomorrow, and, let’s be honest, not even Yankee fans will be sad to see him go), and now that Braun has been busted (raise your hand if you believed he was innocent the first time he was nabbed and got off - I see that hand Aaron Rodgers - anyone else?  Anyone?  I didn’t think so) there is sense that we could truly be moving past all of this.  

And then there is realist in me that says that the drug manufacturers will always be one step ahead of the testers (notice that none of the 12 players being suspended tested positive - and they certainly have been tested).  And that the monetary incentive to cheat will always perpetuate cheating.   The reasons I am pessimistic mostly revolve around money.  Ryan Braun is the perfect example of the financial benefit of PEDs.  It’s not clear when Braun started on the juice but his 34 HRs in 2007 when he won the NL Rookie of the Year award were just the beginning of a 6 year run of putting up excellent and steady stats.  His performance on the field earned him a contract which paid off $6 million last year.  Because of his suspension-without-pay this year, he will only receive a little over half of his $8.5 million contract this year.  No big deal, because next year, even if he cleans up his act and becomes a .250 hitter who can’t hit the long ball without PEDs, he will earn $10 million!  Then 12, 19, 19, 18, and 16 million dollars from 2015-2020.  As the current rules of baseball are, the Brewers are stuck with this gargantuan contract.  How many people in this world would trade their reputation, their chance at the Hall of Fame, their integrity for $83 million (the amount Braun is due in the next 7 years)?  The answer, unfortunately, is - too many.

Another money factor that makes me believe steroids will not be going away anytime soon is Latin American poverty.  Last week I watched the baseball documentary Pelotero (available on Netflix, I would recommend it) which follows two 15 year old Dominican ballplayers.  July 2nd is the day that MLB allows international players who have turned 16 years old to sign contracts with Major League teams.  A 16 year old boy (who, by the way, can hit the snot out of the ball) who lives in a poor village in the Dominican Republic sign a contract with a $3.5 million signing bonus.  It’s no wonder these kids, and their parents, and the hospitals in which they were born, lie about their age - at the risk of a one year ban if they are caught.  If these kids are willing to lie about their age and pursue forged documents imagine the lengths to which they would go to make them better baseball players.  These kids have no concept of respecting the game, the record book, the Hall of Fame, etc. - all they see is $$$$$$$$$.  

But here is why I have an optimism about this day of reckoning - the temperature of the players is totally different now than it was 10 years ago.  While the players’ union of McGwire and Clemens fought for years to not allow testing to enter their steroid infested sport, I believe the players’ union of today would possibly even approve stiffer penalties for those who are found guilty.*  The culture has shifted.  

Ten years ago we all knew that the biggest stars in the game were cheating.  Sosa, Eric Gagne, Bonds - they weren’t fooling anyone.  But let’s ask this question:  If you take out ARod, Braun, and Bartolo Colon with his 40 year old that hasn’t been good in a while pitching a CG shutout last week, is there anyone left in the game that we all know is cheating?  Sure, there will always be players that will continue to test positive, but my hope is that this will be the final time that a Hall of Fame bound player’s destination will be derailed by a PED scandal.  Call me an optimist, but a guy can hope.

And of course, the Godfather night of reckoning only worked for a short respite - and then they made part II and part III.

Oh yeah, and Alex Rodriguez started at 3B for the Yankees tonight - the most bizarre thing I have seen on the sports field in a long, long time.

* For all the discussion about steroids in baseball it must be noted that MLB has the toughest testing policy and the harshest penalties of all the major american sports leagues.  

This could be a win for MLB, and it could be a nightmare

The ESPN Outside the Lines report is that disciplinary action for multiple players, possibly even a few dozen, will be pursued by Major League Baseball based on the testimony of Tony Bosch, director of Biogenesis.  You have probably heard some of the names being thrown around – Ryan Braun, Nelson Cruz, Alex Rodriguez, etc.  How MLB will proceed with the legal process, with contracts, suspensions, we can only guess.  And how the MLB Players Union will respond is also only speculation at this point.  There are only a few ways this can go from here and I want to examine those possible scenarios because this could go well for baseball…or it could be a complete disaster.  The players’ reputations in the court of public opinion are irreparably damaged, there is no doubt about that.  There is no scenario I can envision where the specific players will be winners.  However, there are a few scenarios in which this could be a win for MLB.

This could go well for MLB if…

1. …Tony Bosch turns out to be competent and helpful.  MLB has not had the best of luck when it comes to shady people in shady businesses being their chief witnesses (see:  Brian Mcnamee).   It is for this reason alone that I would say that if I were the Commissioner this is probably not a can I want to open.   If I am Major League Baseball and I am about to tackle the biggest potential case regarding the biggest negative issue facing my sport, I don’t know that I would take that fight into the public arena (not to mention the inevitable battle with the Player’s Union – more on that later) putting all of my eggs in the basket of a drug dealer.  Little is known about Tony Bosch at this point except for one glaring thing – he gave illegal drugs to rich guys to use illegally so that they could get stronger and richer.  Integrity is certainly not this guy’s first foot forward.  I can’t imagine it being too difficult for a cross-examiner to bring his character into question (think Mark Furman).  
2. …ARod, Braun, Cruz, et al. get 100 game suspensions (side note – that would also go well for the Yankees who, at this point, would love to see the cancer that is ARod just go away).  They’re guilty.  Yes, you too Braun.  Getting off on a technicality does not make you a clean player.  We all know they’re guilty, so this would help the rest of us with the healing process.  For this information to linger out there forever and these players never to be punished for it (except, of course, for them being denied Cooperstown, which at this point only applies to Rodriguez) just seems wrong.  I mean think about it, Nelson Cruz is playing in tonight’s game vs. the Red Sox.  That is just weird.
3. …the Player’s Union is on their side.  A part of me says, “this is NEVER going to happen.”  But then I remember what happened in the last strike, and what has happened in every PED decision that has happened since then and I see a Player’s Union that knows that it needs to clean up its image even to go so far as baseball now having the toughest testing policy of all the major North American team sports leagues.  More on this issue later.
4. …contracts are legally allowed to be voided.  Let me start by saying that this is the biggest stretch in this whole discussion.  It is not going to happen.  But what if it did?  For ARod to be suspended 50 or 100 games that would be a big deal.  If here lost 100 games without pay that would cost him roughly $18 million.  If his contract was voided it would cost him over $100 million.  And this is the crux of the steroid issue.  Melky Cabrera tested positive last year and served a 50 game suspension.  Let’s total up all of the money that Melky made before testing positive, and add that to the contract he has signed with the Blue Jays.  Dangle that figure in front of any high schooler, college ballplayer, or minor leaguer and tell them that they can have it, with the only negative being you may get caught and serve a 50 game suspension at some point.  Who is not going to take it?  Let’s ask this hypothetical question just for fun - imagine ARod’s  10 year $275 million contract was voided and he became a free agent; what would his next contract be worth?  Maybe the Blue Jays would take him – 2 years, $15 million tops.  And by the way, has anybody in the history of the world made more of a mess of an opportunity as golden as ARod’s?  Remember when the discussion was it didn’t matter where Bonds set the bar because Alex was going to come in right behind him and be the nice guy who will break that scumbag’s record?  

This could be a nightmare for MLB if…

1. …they pursue suspensions for 25 or so players, fight appeals from the Player’s Union, fight the battles in court, and lose.  It was a huge blow to MLB when (recently elected National League MVP) Ryan Braun won his appeal based on someone’s mishandling of his pee.  We have also seen the ineptitude of the federal government in their pursuit of Roger Clemens and even cycling inability to ever get a positive test out of Lance Armstrong.  Imagine if Bosch sings like a canary, the names of a couple dozen players are splashed all over the media, yet the courts determine that MLB can legally do nothing with his testimony.  What a disaster that would be.

Black Hole is Not a Compliment

I don’t know if I heard someone say this today or if I said it to myself based on what someone else said, but here it is:  

Carmelo Anthony will never win an NBA title on a team on which he is the best player.

I would be willing to bet my house on this statement.  There are a two factors working against Melo which make my house safe in this wager.  One of these factors is his fault, the other is not.  I have always been one to place Anthony high on the list of Players Who Are Nowhere Near As Good As Their Numbers Say.  I think he is overrated and I was never sold on the Knicks this year.  Feel free to agree or disagree with any of the points below.  And if you are willing to place your house against mine I will give you mine when he wins, and you give me yours when he retires ringless.

1.  Lebron James - It is looking like this could be one of those runs in NBA history where a lot of good players never win rings because they do not have Lebron on their team.  Durant’s chances just got set back 4 years with the Harden trade.  Howard may have missed his best chance when Orlando made it to the finals, and I don’t see his window opening anytime soon in LA.  Rose missed his best chance last year when he went down early in the playoffs.  Kyrie’s only chance is Lebron returning to Cleveland.  Steph Curry could be the new D’Antoni Suns - the guy we all love to watch but know probably won’t win it all.  Forget D-Wade’s knee.  If he doesn’t play another game this post-season I still put my money on the Heat.  It seems like the entire Western Conference would have to conspire to assemble a team to beat the Heat (which just may happen if Howard goes to Houston and a couple other guys who see their chances of winning a ring not on Lebrun’s team lie only in conspiracy).  Bill Simmons kicked around the idea of what if you switched Lebron with the best player on any of the 16 playoff teams, how many of them would you favor to win it all - he went with 9 ½.  

2.  Basketball is somewhat of a zero-sum game.  There are a finite number of shots either team is going to have in a given game.  Some coaches or system (i.e. Paul Westhead) will try to raise that number by “cheating” in other aspects of the game, but as the game stands today, the average team takes 100 shots per game.  It could be an oversimplification but it usually follows that the team that wins takes good shots and tries to force the other team to take bad shots (or fewer shots due to turnovers).  Carmelo Anthony voluntarily takes bad shots.  And to compound this problem in his current situation (and another reason my house is safe for now) is him playing on the same team as J.R. Smith.  If I were to make an all-NBA bad shots taken team it would be Anthony, Smith, Kobe, Wade, and Westbrook.  

The numbers tell us what we already know about Melo.  His 2013 playoff numbers are 28.8 PPG against 1.8 assists.  He shot a .406 FG%, had a player efficiency rating (PER - what seems to be the favorite metric of basketball metric guys) of  20.6, and had a Usage % of 38.0 (which means he used 38% of his team’s possessions).  Let’s compare those playoff numbers with the best players on the last few championship teams.  

Melo 2013 - 28.8 PPG, 1.8 APG, .406 FG%,   38.0 USG%, 20.6 PER

Lebron 2012 - 30.0 PPG, 5.6 APG, .500 FG%,  33.5 USG%, 30.3 PER

Dirk 2011 - 27.7 PPG, 2.5 APG, .485 FG%, 32.0 USG%, 25.2 PER

Kobe 2010 - 29.2 PPG, 5.5 APG, .458 FG%, 33.2 USG%, 24.7 PER

Kobe 2009 - 30.2 PPG, 5.5 APG, .457 FG%, 32.9 USG%, 26.8 PER

Jordan 1993 - 35.1 PPG, 6.0 APG, .475 FG%, 38.0 USG%, 30.1 PER

Carmelo is a gunslinger, which means he will get points.  The problem is efficiency.  Look as the usage % for Melo these playoffs - 38%!  Only one time did Jordan ever get that high, and it was in ’93.  The difference between the two players in those 2 playoffs is that ONE OF THEM IS NAMED MICHAEL JORDAN!  Contrast Melo with the championship Spurs teams (and even the Spurs of the last 2 years).  The difference is efficiency.  And in this zero-sum game, if your team gets 100 shots and my team gets 100 shots, and your team takes bad shots while my team takes good shots - I like my chances of wining.  The efficiency statistics were made for Lebron.  The difference between the two is that everyone on the opposing team fears Melo and puts extra defensive efforts on him - which often causes him to take bad shots, while Lebron uses the extra defensive attention on him to create better shots for his teammates.  When the Heat finally get challenged this series and next (I’m betting by the Spurs), the thing that is going to put them over the top is Ray Allen.  If your plan is stop Lebron and Wade then Ray Allen will be simply shooting fish in a barrel.  

Let’s just leave it at this - since 1980 (I know nothing about pre-1980 basketball) no team has won an NBA championship with a gunslinger/black hole not named Jordan or Kobe.  And Kobe was not the best player on his team for his first 3 rings, and had the best passing big man in the game, Pau, on his team for the final 2 (yes, I did mean to say final 2).  And Michael Jordan is Michael Jordan, so that pretty much takes care of that.  So the lesson learned is that if Carmelo want to win a non-olympic championship he will either have to a) be Jordan-esque, b) play for Greg Popovich, or c) join in the Western Conference conspiracy and take a 50% pay cut so he can join Chris Paul and Dwight Howard in Dallas (and then I still get to keep my house because Chris Paul would be the best player on that team).

The News Manufacturers

I Don’t Watch SportsCenter Anymore

Remember when SportsCenter used to be a show about sports news and highlights?

At the time when the Monica Lewinsky scandal was robbing our kids of their innocence and the television had to be turned off whenever children entered the room the SportsCenter host opened the show with the line, “Welcome to SportsCenter, the only news show left on television that does not have an R rating.”  For those who did not want images placed in their minds by the sensational American television media at that time watching NBA highlights on SportsCenter was an escape .

Fast-forward 15 years.

SportsCenter has become the exact opposite, it has turned into a show where sensational news stories have become an escape from watching sports highlights and hearing sports news. 

The last couple of weeks have been a perfect example of what SportsCenter has become.  An extremely high percentage of SC’s airtime has been devoted to Tiger’s drop, a light-in-newsworthy-stories NFL draft, the release of the NFL schedule, the Boston bombings, and, I didn’t watch much SC this week but I am just assuming here – Tim Tebow.  Let’s break it down story by story:

The Masters – Poor Adam Scott.  In one of the greatest finishes in a major golf tournament ever, him winning the Masters was not even the top story, or second story.  Tiger’s drop ruled the tournament.  Tiger’s almost Sunday run got the 2^nd most play.  If you were to ask the average non-golf enthusiast SC viewer 2 questions about the Masters you would definitely get one correct answer. 1) Q:  How many strokes was Tiger penalized?  A:  2.  2) Who won the 2013 Masters?  A:  Um…somebody from Australia…I think.

The NFL Draft – I know a lot of guys love the NFL draft.  I don’t watch it and I hate the hype.  Mel Kyper breaths more hot air than anyone else at that station.  But this year’s draft speaks more to my point than anything else – there is an absence of news so news has to be created.  Last year we had RG3, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, et. al.  This year’s Geno Smith and Matt Barkley aren’t getting anyone excited (especially us Cardinal fans who have a serious fear that one of these guys is going to be added to our cornucopia of C- quarterbacks competing for the starting job).  So what is the lead?  Manti Te’o, and the Honey Badger.  One of which may be a first round draft pick, and the other didn’t even play football last year, and both of them being lead stories for reasons having nothing to do with sports.    

The NFL Schedule – Maybe I am missing something here.  The NBA playoffs are about to start, MLB is underway and has a full slate of games, the NHL playoff hunt is really heating up, and I have to watch NFL experts with bad fashion and even worse camera presence talk about football games that will happen 6 months from now?  I think I even saw Jason Taylor breaking down the Patriots schedule and calling wins and losses.  I realize that this speaks to the popularity of the NFL but for me this is another case of SC manufacturing news instead of reporting it.

Boston – I certainly do not want to downplay the horror of what happened at the Boston Marathon.  It was another reminder of this brutal world in which we live.  That’s why we love sports, to get away from the weight and stress of life and immerse ourselves in something that doesn’t matter yet still stirs our passions.  SC has been wall-to-wall Boston this week.  That’s not why I watch SC, I watch SC to get away from that sort of thing.  If I want to follow the overzealous media making speculations and releasing false reports I will turn on CNN, I just want to watch baseball.

Tim Tebow – If you don’t know me personally then you don’t know that I lived in China for years so I watched very little ESPN from early 2009 until last summer, or in SportsCenter years – Tebow’s arrival in New York.  I don’t know what happened in the 4 years I was tuned out, or maybe Tim Tebow changed SC irreparably for all time, but since August it is a show that I can no longer watch. 

This Is NOT About That

Jackie Robinson is not a metaphor for your struggles

Jackie Robinson is an American hero.  He was a revolutionary.  He changed the world, and very few men in history could have done what he did.  He was not just someone who was in the right place at the right time, he was the perfect man for a horrible time.  

Please do not diminish Jackie’s achievement by comparing other breakthroughs to his breakthrough.  

The movie 42 opened in theaters last Friday, I plan on seeing it this week.  It is a movie about Jackie Robinson breaking the color barrier in baseball on April 15, 1947.  Jackie went through hell, and he not only endured, but he persevered.  Not able to dine at the same restaurants as his teammates, not even able to stay at the team hotel on the road,  and with death threats a daily occurrence, Jackie Robinson performed day after day in this environment at such a high level that he won the National League Rookie of the Year award in 1947, went on the win the NL MVP in 1949, and was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame.  His induction into the Hall of Fame was not based on his civil rights achievement, it was based objectively on his performance on the baseball field; though if they had a Hall of Fame for impact beyond baseball Jackie have his own wing.    

There is NOTHING in today’s world that could compare to what Jackie Robinson did in 1947, not in sports, and not outside of sports.  The election of our first black president was a momentous occasion for our nation.  Even though I didn’t vote for him I went to his inauguration and was proud to be an American on that day.  If we were to elect a female president it would also be a monumental event, but it couldn’t touch what happened in Brooklyn on April 15, 1947.  The stats still say that women do not get equal pay for equal work and that is a shame.  Jackie’s race couldn’t even dream about getting most jobs in this country, let alone getting fair pay.  This brings to my reason for writing this article - four times this week I have heard someone compare the impending first gay athlete in team sports to Jackie Robinson (Baltimore Raven Brendon Ayanbadejo on ESPN radio, Bob Costas on the Dan Patrick Show, this Grantland article, and this Guardian article about gay former footballer Robbie Rogers).

Stop it, all of you.  

I know this is a very timely issue for the gay debate, and with Jackie Robinson day on Monday and the release of this biopic I can see the temptation to make a comparison in sports.  Yes, an openly gay athlete in professional team sports would be groundbreaking.  I’m sure he would receive persecution for playing the game he loves and just happening to be gay.  But let’s add some perspective to this discussion:

• Jackie debuted at Ebbets Field on April 15, 1947.
• Even though the Emancipation Proclamation technically freed the slaves on January 1, 1863, and the 13th amendment was adopted on December 6, 1865, the Civil Rights movement didn’t happen until much later.
• Martin Luther King Jr.’s “I have a dream” speech wasn’t delivered until August 28, 1963 - a full 16 years after Jackie put on the Dodger blue!  In this speech, in reference to the Emancipation Proclamation, Dr. King lamented, “one hundred years later, the Negro still is not free."
• We all saw Remember the Titans.  That was based on a true story that happened in the 1970’s!

What is often lost to history is how ahead of its culture the Brooklyn Dodgers were for signing Jackie Robinson in 1947.  That is not to say that Major League Baseball was in any way heroic in setting the stage for integration - the gentlemen’s agreement that existed between owners keeping all black athletes out of Major League Baseball for decades is a stain on baseball history that is nothing short of tragic.   Branch Rickey signed a black man to play for the Brooklyn Dodgers thus de-segregating baseball in a society that was almost completely segregated in every other walk of life.  Heck, Rosa Parks’ famous refusal to give up her bus seat didn’t even happen until the end of 1955!  This should give us some picture of the monumental hill that Jackie had to climb.

To make comparisons today is to forget exactly how steep that hill was.  Many have tried with the current gay rights debates.  Don’t make this about that.  This is way bigger than that.

We almost had our first example of an openly gay team sport athlete.  He used to be my favorite young soccer player until he shared with the world that he is gay.  The reason he is no longer my favorite soccer player is not because he is gay, but because he is no longer a soccer player.  Robbie Rogers started with the Columbus Crew and played so well that he even got a few sniffs with the US National Team.  His skills took him across the pond to play in England for Leeds United.  He shared with the world his true identity on his blog, and also shared he was quitting professional football.  He admitted that he could not do it, not at this time.  He couldn’t play football in England with the whole world knowing he was gay.  I don’t know Robbie and I am not going to judge his decision but I’m sure some are calling him a coward, some gay rights activists are wishing Robbie Rogers would be the one who would wave their flag on the pitches of British football.  First you must realize this:  there is a HUGE difference between English football and the environment of American sports.  The Brits are a) significantly more obsessive about football than we are about...well...anything, and b) British football fans are still decades behind us when it comes to accepting those who are different.  There are still instances where bananas are thrown at black players on the pitch.  British football is surely not the right environment for Robbie to make his breakthrough.  But what if he returned to the Columbus Crew?  What if he played in America?  Imagine what would happen at Crew Stadium if a fan threw a banana at a black player.  That fan might not make it out alive.  I would bet that the reaction to any gay-bashing coming from the stands might not be much different.  I could be underestimating the mob mentality of soccer fans, but I don’t think I am.  

My point is this:  for better or for worse tolerance has won out.  I am not so naive to believe that racism, sexism, and homophobia don’t exist.  Racists and sexists are at least smart enough to keep their bigotry, if you will pardon the pun, in the closet, for the most part.  Homophobia, however, is still something that many feel is their religious or political duty to shout from the street corner, but even they are becoming more and more marginalized.  I have no idea how difficult the struggles of those in the gay community are, I’ve never walked in their shoes, but it would be absurd to compare them to what black Americans have experienced.  

Early on the gay community had Will & Grace, Jackie had to have snipers positioned on the roof at Crosley Field in Cincinnati because the death threats were so serious.  We now have legislation that makes abusing a homosexual a more serious crime than simply abusing someone who, let’s say, says something about your Mom, Jackie couldn’t even stay at the same hotel as his teammates.  Today we have Glee and Ellen, Jackie didn’t even have MLK until almost 2 decades after he began his baseball career.  Gays cannot legally marry their partners in most states, African Americans WERE ENSLAVED IN OUR COUNTRY FOR CENTURIES!

Don’t make this about that.  Jackie Robinson was and is an American hero.  While receiving abuse the likes of which I can’t even imagine he turned the other cheek, and then he stole home.  He played with flair and carried himself with dignity.  Others black baseball players followed.  Eventually our nation followed.  

Ten Observations from Opening Day

It is my favorite holiday of the year.  You say you don’t get the day off for Opening Day?  You should, it is a holiday at my house.

1.  This will be the 105th year of Cubs futility, and there are no signs of that streak ending time soon.

My Father HATES the Cubs.  I never understood the angst there.  Its on par with despising the Washington Generals, or Plankton, or Nuns - they’re not hurting anyone, just let them do their thing.  About 15 years my Father started a tradition of reminding everyone, “In October I am going to throw a party to celebrate 90 years of Cubs futility.”  You can imagine his excitement when they hit the century mark.  Well its that time of year again, and seeing the Cubs Opening Day roster would have to say that they have zero chance of breaking their 105 year World Series Championship draught.  There 67 years since appearing in the World Series is a number that will roll over to 68 at year’s end as well.  Jeff Samrdzijadafdlkja looked great, and I feel bad that Starlin Castro will waste away at Wrigley, but there are few (Rizzo?) other bright spots in that organization other than a wonderful ballpark experience at Wrigley.

2.  Speaking of futility, the odds are against the Pirates to finish above .500 for the first time since 1992.  

A friend of mine who is a Pirates fan has issued the team an ultimatum - he will stop being a Pirates if they do not have a .500 or better season before his son reaches the age that he was when the Pirates last had a winning season - they have 3 years to make it happen or else Geof is going to find another team.  Vegas has the over/under at 79 wins this year.  AJ Burnett looked good in the opener but lost.  They lost a lot of games against the Astros as they moved to the AL and did little in the offseason to improve (although I like Russell Martin, he is a winner).  I hope I am wrong about this, but I would take the under.

3.  Inter-league play on Opening Day is borderline blasphemy.

The Reds/Angels game proved to be a beauty with 4 innings of free baseball, but it just seemed weird.  With the Astros moving to the AL West thus evening the American and National Leagues at 15 each with 5 teams in each division, it has become (in my opinion) a necessary evil to have one inter-league series going on the entire season.  It was weird on Opening Day, it will be horrible the last weekend in September when the Tigers, in the thick of a pennant race, will travel to Miami to play an inter-league game agains the Marlins.  

4.  In his 64th year on the air, Vin Scully never sounded better

Dodgers baseball is perhaps the only thing in my life that looks and sounds the same now as it did when I was a child.  I have driven by my childhood home and the tree house is torn down.  My favorite restaurant is no longer there.  My childhood friends are all adults now.  But the Dodgers experience - I can still go to the same stadium, watch my team play in the same uniforms, eat a Dodger Dog, and hear the same voice of Vin Scully coming out of the radio of the guy sitting next to me.  When I was a kid going to Dodger Stadium you never had to bring your own radio because it was almost like every 8th seat had a radio that came with it, and you could hear Vin Scully voice in just about every seat in the entire stadium.  This is his 64th year on the air, and he hasn’t lost a step.

5.  Since we are on the Dodgers, they looked great. 

I have been outspoken in my thoughts about the new ownership.  Just because you have the money, doesn’t mean you should spend the money.  The twenty million dollars you are giving to Carl Crawford this year is twenty million dollars that you can’t give to someone else.  However, Crawford looked very sharp yesterday.  Even though he was gunned down trying to steal third, he hit the ball hard, scored on a passed ball, and did not seem to be suffering any ill effects from the injury.  Kershaw will be great, Grienke should be fine once he gets back in the rotation, and if they can get decent production from one or two of Beckett, Ryu, Capuano, Billingsley, or Lily, then they could win 100 games.

6.  This could be a long year in NY

The Mets got the Opening Day win but they are awful.  I feel bad for David Wright.  The Yankees are fielding 2/3 of a AAA lineup.  When was the last time you looked at a Yankee lineup and said, “who is that guy?”  Sabbathia will be fine, but then who?  The Mets will not finish in last place, thanks to the Marlins, but with the AL East being what it is this year, it wouldn’t take much for the Yankees to finish the season in the cellar.  The baseball guys at Grantland predicted the last place team (Orioles) in the AL East to have an 81-81 record.  With a weighted schedule that is a ludicrous prognostication, but the point remains that there is little separation in the East.  It could be a very cold October in the Big Apple. 

7.  A-Rod 647 v. 762

A-Rod was conspicuously absent from the Yankees lineup.  Remember 5 years when we all knew that Bonds was going to break Aaron’s record but not to worry because A-Rod would come along shortly and break the record, which would stand for a few years until Pujols broke it for good?  At that time it seemed inevitable.  But now here we are, A-Rod sitting on 647 and looking at a prolonged stint on the DL thanks to off-season hip surgery.  He won’t join the team before the All-Star break and after how he ended last season (being benched in the playoffs) I don’t see the Yankees counting down the days until his return.  Add to all of this the added baggage of a Biogenesis PED investigation by MLB and the bitterness of fans and ownership at still owing him $114 million (when all is said and done we may look at this as the worst contract in the history of the game).    All told I would put the over/under on A-Rod home runs this year at 7.5 - I would still take the under.

8.  Harper and Strasburg are not one hit wonders

Stasburg got the win and looked like the Promised One, and Harper hit 2 home runs.  I said in my last article that I can’t imagine the Nationals not improving on last year, and they won 98 games last year.  A World Series title is not a ridiculous proposition in DC.  And then next year I will say again, “the Nats can only be better this year than last year.”  The future is looking very bright.  Maybe 3 years from now when the Washington Walgreens have 2 World Series titles people will be saying, “I’m glad the ownership was cautious with Strasburg back in ’12.  

9.  Kevin Youklis looks strange without his goatee.  He looks even stranger in pinstripes.

There are some things that were just meant to be - PB+J, John+Paul+George+Ringo - and there are some things that just don’t feel right - Robert Plant’s solo career, orange juice after toothpaste, etc.  Kevin Youklis’ one handed grip, signature goatee, and bulldog approach to the game just seemed like it was a perfect marriage with Fenway Park and the Boston faithful.  To see him yesterday clean shaven in pinstripes just felt...icky.   

10.  MLB.TV is the best/worst thing that has ever happened to me.  

I am a Dodgers fan who lives on the east coast.  Most first pitches are at 10:10 pm.  I also have 4 kids.  I find myself being glad sometimes when I realize the Dodgers have the day off.  Oh this cursed/blessed addiction...

2013 Baseball Prognostications

NL Division Winner

• Nationals - I can’t imagine the Nats not being better than last year, and they won 98 games last year.  
• Reds - The Reds benefited from a starting rotation that had a combined 0 trips to the DL last year; many of those guys also had career years.  Surely that can’t be repeated but no one else in the NL Central scares me if I’m the Reds.  The Cardinals’ midas touch can’t continue forever...can it?
• Dodgers - The embarrassment of riches in the starting rotation is a great problem to have when 1) the season is 162 games long, 2) one of the guys you are counting on is a rookie from Korea, and 3) another you are counting on is named Josh Beckett.  If Crawford can get on base and Hanley can get healthy then Gonzalez could be an MVP type guy in that lineup.
• WC - Giants - I can’t imagine them winning the west with that (lack of) offense.  But, I’ve said that a few times in the last 3 years (Man! I hate the Giants).
• WC - Braves - One wild card has to come from the NL East where your schedule is weighted heavily toward games against the Mets and Marlins.  

AL Division Winners

• Rays - They keep doing it, and doing it, and doing it well.  The Yankees are scraping the bottom of the barrel, the Red Sox are rebuilding a bit, and those teams that are assembled in one offseason with lots of additions (Blue Jays) usually don’t pan out too well in the first season (exception - ’97 Marlins).  The Orioles can’t possibly do it again with that starting pitching rotation.  
• Tigers - I would be surprised if they made the World Series again but I would very surprised if they did not win the AL Central again.
• Angels - What an absolute nightmare for opposing pitchers.  My pick to win the AL
• WC - A’s - I don’t analyze the A’s, I just trust them.
• WC - Someone from the AL Central - Sox? Royals? Indians?  I just don’t see anyone from the east doing it.  Things could be much better in Cleveland and KC.  I could see any one of these teams breaking out, and I could see each of them losing 90 games.

World Series - Angles over the Dodgers

AL MVP - Cabrera - In the last 4 years he has not hit under .320, or under 103 RBI. Or under 30 HR.  He has also averaged 158.3 games played over the last 9 years.  He is the safest bet for production of any player in baseball.  Oh yeah, and he won the triple crown last year.  

NL MVP - Votto - Votto is a joy to watch hit, but when you look at his advanced numbers it gets just plain silly.  He has popped up 4 times...in his career! (I had to confirm this one).  According to Tom Verducci, he hits .300 when falling behind in the count (league average is .198).  Braun will probably have higher numbers in the sexy statistics but I don’t see Braun leading his team to the playoffs.  Votto has the potential to put up epic numbers, and I fully anticipate him being the most valuable player on a playoff team, which has proven to matter to voters in recent years.

AL Cy - J. Verlander - Best pitcher in the AL, not even close.

NL Cy - C. Kershaw - Best pitcher in baseball, Verlander is the only one who is even close.

AL ROY - Wil Myers (TB) - I am hoping the Rays don’t call him up too soon as he will be playing AAA ball about 10 miles from my house.

NL ROY - Gerrit Cole (Pit) - If there is ever a place a rookie can stand out it is in the Pirates starting rotation.  Compared to Pirates starting pitchers over the last, oh... 20 years, it won’t take much to look good.