How Should We Feel?

The last 24 hours have been, for US soccer fans (and welcome aboard to everyone who has hopped onboard recently, the more the merrier) an emotional spin cycle no too dissimilar from a Gossip Girl episode.  From despair (Portugal goal in the 5th minute, Ghana was a fluke), to hope (we looked fantastic the remainder of the first half), to joy (Jermaine Jones!!!), to euphoria (via Clint Dempsey’s navel), to disbelief (we are going to advance with still one more group stage match to play), to shock (Ronaldo’s one good touch in 95 minutes).  

What is left is confusion - now what are we supposed to feel?  

What you need to know

1.  We are a better team than Portugal.  

Ronaldo was not at 100%, and FIFA world rankings mean nothing (Portugal was 4th in the world entering the tournament), but we were the superior team in this match.  People laughed at me when I said, before the tournament started, that this was called the “group of death” because we were in it.  Ghana looked the superior team on Monday, but we scored more goals than them.  We were the superior team last night - and most importantly, the boys on the pitch believed it as well, and it showed.  

2.  Jurgen Klinsmann has worked a masterpiece.  

I will say the same even if we don’t advance.  He has the boys fit, prepared, and confident.  He had a perfect game plan in Jozy’s absence vs. Portugal.  He has Fabian Johnson in a position that fits him perfectly as a defender who has liberty to run wild.  And oh by the way, he has assembled the squad perfectly.  Jermaine Jones has been the MVP of the tournament for the USA thus far (a player who Klinsmann has supported for a long time much to the dismay of many supporters), and Donovan has not been needed.  My brother asked me in the 85th minute last night, “where are all the people crying for Donovan now?"  My response was, “how does Jurgen say ‘bite me’ in German?”

3.  The tie breaker system.  

The first tie breaker is goal differential.  Number 2 is goals scored.  Third is head-to-head.  Pretty much the only way we don’t advance is if we lose to Germany and Ghana beats Portugal in a way that either a) Ghana has a better goal differential than us (currently we are +1 and they are -1) or if that is equal b) by the end of the day Ghana has more goals scored than us (currently we have scored 4 and they have scored 3).  Portugal would have to beat Ghana by 4 and us lose by 1 or more for them to advance.  If we tie or win, we are through.

So here are the scenarios for us going forward.  The good news and the bad news.  Bad news first:

The Bad News

1.  Ghana is really good - Ghana winning by 2 goals isn’t much of a stretch.

2.  Germany is really good - For my money, Germany is still the best team in the tournament.

3.  Portugal has little reason for optimism - The scenario which would allow them to advance is a bit outrageous and their World Footballer of the Year is hurt and is the kind of guy who looks out for #1 (my friend who was at the game last night told me that he yells for the ball every time they have it, and yells it is his teammates every time he doesn’t get it).  I could easily see a scene where Ghana scores a goal early and Portugal implodes.

The Good News

1.  We looked great against Portugal - Creative, confident, fast, organized, daring, resilient.  Geof Cameron's shank, and Tim Howard's uncharacteristic blunder which saw the ball go right between his hands and bounce of the post were the only 2 flaws in an otherwise perfect match.  

2.  Germany won’t be fighting to the death - The only way Germany doesn’t advance is if they lose to us and Ghana beats Portugal in a way that is combined more than 4 goals.  In fact, if the captains got together and shook hands and Dempsey told Lahm, “0-0 sounds good to us, how about you?” it would be a result that would be just fine with both sides.  If this game is 0-0 in the 70th minute you are going to see the most boring 20 minutes of soccer you have ever seen (unless, of course, you are an unobjective USA supporter and you would be thrilled with a draw).  

3.  The European teams aren’t taking too kindly to Brazil.  With the exception of the Netherlands, Belgium (drawn in the “group of life”), and France (we would have killed to have been in that group), and I would have said Germany until their tie vs. Ghana, European teams have given the appearance that the rules of the game are different in the southwestern quartersphere.  England, Portugal, Spain, Bosnia (though they are the best looking 0 pt. team in the tournament), Croatia, Italy, Switzerland, Russia - all have stuggled while teams from the Americas - Mexico, Costa Rica, Chile, USA, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia - have fared well.

4.  Jurgen assembled this team for this match - This team was assembled to beat Germany if it had to.  FIFA rigged the draw so that Jurgen would have to play Germany.  After the Portugal match Jurgen even accused FIFA of wanting the “big teams” to win by giving them an extra day of rest and a lighter travel schedule (his exact quote was, “They played yesterday. We played today. We played in the Amazon. They played in place where you don't have to travel so much. Things are set up for the big teams to move on.”)  This is why there are 4 players on our roster based in the Bundesliga.  We were hoping we wouldn’t need anything against Germany (and we were hoping they wouldn’t need any points against us either) but that’s not the case, but the good news is that we are prepared for it.

5.  This USA team is different than any other.  In our last 26 matches, dating back to mid 2013, the USMNT is 20 wins, 3 loses, and 3 draws.  Our only 3 losses were at Costa Rica in a qualifying match, vs. the Ukraine in Cyprus which fell right in the crux of their political turmoil, and a friendly away at Austria.  Many of the wins in that stretch are against sub-par opponents, but we have never consistently won matches that we are supposed to win.  And oh by the way, one of those wins is against Germany.  Granted, it was week after a Champions League final with included 2 German clubs and none of those players made the trip, but we never used to win those games.  

Bottom Line - We are going through.  We deserve it.  We will earn it.  And even if we don’t, we have lots of reasons to be proud.

The Final 23

Jurgen has announced the final 23 man roster who will represent the Stars and Stripes in Brazil.  Casual sports fans may only recognize a few names, and may even better recognize names that are not on the list.  Here is what you need to know, briefly, about our boys who are going to Brazil:

Goalkeepers:  Brad Guzan (Aston Villa, England), Tim Howard (Everton, England), Nick Rimando (Salt Lake)

For a long time we have had the best goalkeepers in the world.  It surely has something to do with the fact that all Americans grew up playing sports with our hands (basketball, baseball, football).  Tim Howard will probably get all of the minutes this tournament.  However, if he gets sent off or injured, Brad Guzan is a goalkeeper that would probably start for over half the teams in this tournament.  Nick Rimando will only play if 2 injuries happen, but that still would not be the end of the world.

Defenders: DaMarcus Beasley (Puebla, Mexico), Matt Besler (Kansas City), John Brooks (Hertha Berlin, Germany), Geoff Cameron (Stoke City, England), Timmy Chandler (Nurnberg, Germany), Omar Gonzalez (LA), Fabian Johnson (Borussia Monchengladbach, Germany), DeAndre Yedlin (Seattle)

This is where you need to be concerned.  The fact that Beasley is one of the best left backs in our country is a head scratcher.  I just looked back at the 2002 roster and he was listed as a Forward.  Now that he is older and has lost a few steps he is fit to play left back?  I love Geoff Cameron who is a starter in the Premier League and thus has loads of experience against the best in the world.  Besler (help me out America, it's pronounced Bee-zler) is solid.  Even more-than-casual fans won't recognize the names Brooks and Chandler.  Curious selections, one might think.  German players chosen by a German coach with a German bias?  Possibly, except for the fact that we play Germany in our 3rd match.  Bottom line - Cristiano Ronaldo and Klose will be salivating looking at this back 4.

Midfielders:  Kyle Beckerman (Salt Lake), Alejandro Bedoya (Nantes, France), Michael Bradley (Toronto), Brad Davis (Houston), Mix Diskerud (Rosenborg, Norway), Julian Green (Bayern Munich, Germany), Jermaine Jones (Besiktas, Turkey), Graham Zusi (Kansas City)

Julian Green is the media story - 18 year old who only plays for Bayern's 4th division team, just decided to declare US as his national team, has 1 cap, but Michael Bradley is the real story.  He looks great!  The match against Mexico last month he was the best player on the pitch by a good margin.  He's never been afraid to kick the crap out of people, hence the yellow card worries, but he has turned into an incredible distributor and match controller.  Will he be able to do that against Portugal?  We'll see.  Beckerman will be the media darling this tournament what with his white man dreadlocks and cool demeanor, but he may also prove to be a steadying presence in the midfield alongside Bradley - which will be crucial in front of our anything-but-steady back line.

Forwards:  Jozy Altidore (Sunderland, England), Clint Dempsey (Seattle) Aron Johansson (AZ Alkmaar, Netherlands), Chris Wondolowski (San Jose)

The narrative goes something like this:  A year ago we were real excited about Dempsey and Jozy taking on the world but after Dempsey came back from England to Seattle and actually made the Sounders worse, and Jozy's 2013-2014 campaign in the premiership being more lackluster than dynamic, I'm not sure anymore.

Let me put on my optimistic glasses for a minute and tell you why you should not believe that narrative.  Jozy shines on the USMNT.  I'll never forget the goal he scored against Spain in the Confederations Cup in South Africa and thinking that this what the USA has been missing - a guy who can physically manhandle the best the world has to offer (sorry Cobi Jones, and respect to Joe-Max Moore, but we've never had that guy).  Dempsey is probably the best player our nation has ever produced, and also plays his best soccer when supported by the American Outlaws.  Johansson and Wondo do nothing but score goals and could be invaluable super subs in the 2nd half of a match where a draw is not good enough.


The side is young and fearless.  2013 was a record setting year.  Beat Germany, Italy, Mexico in Mexico, had a 12 game win streak, won more games than any calendar year in US history (16).  Much has been made about our difficult group (next post), and the absence of Landon Donovan (too bad for the 23 on the team that the media story has not been about them), but in 3 games that won't happen again until 2018, anything can happen.    

All World Cup, All the Time

Limping Gibby is going to be all World Cup, all the time, from now until the Final, and probably for a couple days after.  If you have noticed, the gap between the last post and this post has been 9 months.  Lack of inspiration, mostly.  It's not sports' fault, it's my fault.  But the good news is, inspiration is coming/has come in the form of a month long tournament where the whole world will be watching.  Other things claim the superlative "the whole world is watching" but this is the only case where that is genuinely true.

I love the World Cup probably more than anything else in the world that is not a real person.  I quit my job in 1994 when the World Cup began (I was 16, and A Portrait Park by J didn't miss me much).  I woke up my kids (6 and 4 respectively) at 2:30 in the morning (Beijing time) to watch the USA v. Ghana match 4 years ago.  Four of the 5 greatest sports viewing moments of my life involve the World Cup (the other is the inspiration for the name of this blog).

Inspiration is here, so it is time for me to dust off the old keyboard and help America follow the many narratives that will be a part of the greatest event on earth.  20 days and counting!!!

Johnny Manziel As Proof That the USA Will Never Win the World Cup

Wait...what...?

Just follow me on this one.  

Johnny Manziel is currently under investigation by the NCAA for making money by selling his autograph.

***Let’s just pause right there.  This has nothing to do with this article but...is that not most un-American thing you have ever heard?

The Johnny Football (others call him Johnny Heisman, I prefer Johnny Lohan) situation has led to hours and hours of sports talk radio discussion about how Universities and the NCAA should deal with celebrity college athletes.  Yes, it is un-American that Johnny can’t make a few extra dollars signing footballs, but the sad truth is that there are way to many people who care way to much about their college sports teams to open that door.  But this discussion only really applies to 2 sports, and my point here is about the non-revenue sports - most specifically soccer.

The NCAA, whether you agree with them or not, has pages upon pages of rules that deal with “benefits”.  The obvious purpose of those rules is to create a “level playing field” between those who, like Alabama and Ohio State, have literally bottomless coffers like, and those who do not (another side note:  As if there is a level playing field between, let’s say, Alabama - every game will be on national TV, there is a waterfall in our locker room, 90,000 fans on Saturday - and, let’s say, the University of Akron - game broadcast locally on the radio, waterfall-less locker room, even if you win every game 96-3 you won’t play in the National Championship).  However, its not those rules that I want to discuss here - it’s the student athlete rules that pertain to our World Cup discussion.

I played NCAA div. 1 soccer for a program that did not even sell tickets to our matches.  We were the epitome of a non-revenue sport.  However, each August, we had to sit in our locker for 2 hours while the compliance director of the school would talk to us about what we were and were not allowed to do as student athletes.  The majority of those rules who put in place for football and basketball reasons (we did not have “boosters” for our soccer program), but negatively affected the rest of us.  For example - those students who were on scholarship were only allowed to work during the school year to earn the amount of money that was equal to the difference between their scholarship and the cost of tuition + room and board.  So if, for example, a student athlete who is on full scholarship wants to buy his girlfriend an engagement ring then he must earn that amount of money during summer break.  There were some rules that were meant to protect the “student” side of the student athlete.  For each sport there is a maximum number of contests a team can play in a given season.  There is maximum number of hours each team can spend on the practice field.  There is a maximum number of days that a team can spend in practice during the off-season.  As an NCAA athlete I could not play or practice with another team, such as a club team, while school was in session.  As the NCAA commercials used to say, “there are x-thousand NCAA student athletes, and almost all of them will go professional in something other than sports.”  These rules increase the likelihood of a student athlete succeeding in the classroom, yes, but there is another necessary outcome of these rules - they stunt one’s growth as an athlete.

An NCAA athlete is stuck within the system and a ceiling is placed over his or head.  The NCAA is quick to point out that “student” always come before “athlete”.  And this is why we will never win the World Cup.

If a 16 year old American high schooler shows real promise on the soccer field his parents and his teachers and his tutors will do everything they can to help that student succeed in the classroom so that he or she can pass the clearing house (a system that the NCAA uses to determine an incoming high school student’s eligibility to play at the div. 1 or div. 2 level based on a sliding scale of SAT or ACT scores and GPA) so that he or she can play at the highest level in college.  That athlete will then be required to go to class, pass a certain number of classes, and be limited in the number of practice hours and the number of games he can play.  If that same 16 year old is in Europe or Latin America he goes to school to learn soccer.  Actually, he would enter the system much earlier than 16.  Ajax in the Netherlands and Taihuichi in Bolivia are 2 places that are famous for their development academies.  And when you have soccer crazy nations that are developing their players in this manner, we will never be able to compete.

At this point all of you non-sports fans are sticking your chests out and saying, “thankfully we have our priorities in the right place.”  Easy on the ethnocentrism there Suzy Patriot, there is not a whole lot that right about kids making billions of dollars for a group of adults while they are being “compensated” with free classes, free food, and free bunk bed in a stanky college dorm room - all the while being prevented from selling their own scribble of their own name. 

Baseball’s Night of Long Knives

Baseball’s Night of Long Knives

The Sportscenter alert on my phone informed me that an a decision in the Biogenesis case involving Alex Rodriguez, Bartolo Colon, Jhonny Peralta, Nelson Cruz, and 8 other major leaguers will be announced tomorrow.  It feels like this is Bud Selig’s Night of Long Knives.  Or, to use a Hollywood analogy, Bud is Michael Corleone in the final scene of the Godfather offing the heads of the heads of the five families, and thus putting an end to it all.  

It just feels different this time.

It’s not the baseball steroid debate of the 90’s when baseball was fighting for testing (because they knew the players were using) and the players’ union was fighting testing (because they knew the players were using).  We have come a long way since then.

It’s not even the baseball steroid debate of Bonds vs. Aaron where there was a sense that everyone knew Bonds was cheating but we dealt with it as left over residue for the “steroid era” where everyone was doing it, there was no testing, reporters turned a blind eye, and we the fans cheered on the long ball.  The Bonds situation was baseball getting what it deserved.  

There is an optimistic part of me that sees this Biogenesis case as the Godfather finishing it.  After Alex Rodriguez gets out of the game (which is going to happen, it will happen maybe even tomorrow, and, let’s be honest, not even Yankee fans will be sad to see him go), and now that Braun has been busted (raise your hand if you believed he was innocent the first time he was nabbed and got off - I see that hand Aaron Rodgers - anyone else?  Anyone?  I didn’t think so) there is sense that we could truly be moving past all of this.  

And then there is realist in me that says that the drug manufacturers will always be one step ahead of the testers (notice that none of the 12 players being suspended tested positive - and they certainly have been tested).  And that the monetary incentive to cheat will always perpetuate cheating.   The reasons I am pessimistic mostly revolve around money.  Ryan Braun is the perfect example of the financial benefit of PEDs.  It’s not clear when Braun started on the juice but his 34 HRs in 2007 when he won the NL Rookie of the Year award were just the beginning of a 6 year run of putting up excellent and steady stats.  His performance on the field earned him a contract which paid off $6 million last year.  Because of his suspension-without-pay this year, he will only receive a little over half of his $8.5 million contract this year.  No big deal, because next year, even if he cleans up his act and becomes a .250 hitter who can’t hit the long ball without PEDs, he will earn $10 million!  Then 12, 19, 19, 18, and 16 million dollars from 2015-2020.  As the current rules of baseball are, the Brewers are stuck with this gargantuan contract.  How many people in this world would trade their reputation, their chance at the Hall of Fame, their integrity for $83 million (the amount Braun is due in the next 7 years)?  The answer, unfortunately, is - too many.

Another money factor that makes me believe steroids will not be going away anytime soon is Latin American poverty.  Last week I watched the baseball documentary Pelotero (available on Netflix, I would recommend it) which follows two 15 year old Dominican ballplayers.  July 2nd is the day that MLB allows international players who have turned 16 years old to sign contracts with Major League teams.  A 16 year old boy (who, by the way, can hit the snot out of the ball) who lives in a poor village in the Dominican Republic sign a contract with a $3.5 million signing bonus.  It’s no wonder these kids, and their parents, and the hospitals in which they were born, lie about their age - at the risk of a one year ban if they are caught.  If these kids are willing to lie about their age and pursue forged documents imagine the lengths to which they would go to make them better baseball players.  These kids have no concept of respecting the game, the record book, the Hall of Fame, etc. - all they see is $$$$$$$$$.  

But here is why I have an optimism about this day of reckoning - the temperature of the players is totally different now than it was 10 years ago.  While the players’ union of McGwire and Clemens fought for years to not allow testing to enter their steroid infested sport, I believe the players’ union of today would possibly even approve stiffer penalties for those who are found guilty.*  The culture has shifted.  

Ten years ago we all knew that the biggest stars in the game were cheating.  Sosa, Eric Gagne, Bonds - they weren’t fooling anyone.  But let’s ask this question:  If you take out ARod, Braun, and Bartolo Colon with his 40 year old that hasn’t been good in a while pitching a CG shutout last week, is there anyone left in the game that we all know is cheating?  Sure, there will always be players that will continue to test positive, but my hope is that this will be the final time that a Hall of Fame bound player’s destination will be derailed by a PED scandal.  Call me an optimist, but a guy can hope.

And of course, the Godfather night of reckoning only worked for a short respite - and then they made part II and part III.

Oh yeah, and Alex Rodriguez started at 3B for the Yankees tonight - the most bizarre thing I have seen on the sports field in a long, long time.

* For all the discussion about steroids in baseball it must be noted that MLB has the toughest testing policy and the harshest penalties of all the major american sports leagues.  

This could be a win for MLB, and it could be a nightmare

The ESPN Outside the Lines report is that disciplinary action for multiple players, possibly even a few dozen, will be pursued by Major League Baseball based on the testimony of Tony Bosch, director of Biogenesis.  You have probably heard some of the names being thrown around – Ryan Braun, Nelson Cruz, Alex Rodriguez, etc.  How MLB will proceed with the legal process, with contracts, suspensions, we can only guess.  And how the MLB Players Union will respond is also only speculation at this point.  There are only a few ways this can go from here and I want to examine those possible scenarios because this could go well for baseball…or it could be a complete disaster.  The players’ reputations in the court of public opinion are irreparably damaged, there is no doubt about that.  There is no scenario I can envision where the specific players will be winners.  However, there are a few scenarios in which this could be a win for MLB.

This could go well for MLB if…

1. …Tony Bosch turns out to be competent and helpful.  MLB has not had the best of luck when it comes to shady people in shady businesses being their chief witnesses (see:  Brian Mcnamee).   It is for this reason alone that I would say that if I were the Commissioner this is probably not a can I want to open.   If I am Major League Baseball and I am about to tackle the biggest potential case regarding the biggest negative issue facing my sport, I don’t know that I would take that fight into the public arena (not to mention the inevitable battle with the Player’s Union – more on that later) putting all of my eggs in the basket of a drug dealer.  Little is known about Tony Bosch at this point except for one glaring thing – he gave illegal drugs to rich guys to use illegally so that they could get stronger and richer.  Integrity is certainly not this guy’s first foot forward.  I can’t imagine it being too difficult for a cross-examiner to bring his character into question (think Mark Furman).  
2. …ARod, Braun, Cruz, et al. get 100 game suspensions (side note – that would also go well for the Yankees who, at this point, would love to see the cancer that is ARod just go away).  They’re guilty.  Yes, you too Braun.  Getting off on a technicality does not make you a clean player.  We all know they’re guilty, so this would help the rest of us with the healing process.  For this information to linger out there forever and these players never to be punished for it (except, of course, for them being denied Cooperstown, which at this point only applies to Rodriguez) just seems wrong.  I mean think about it, Nelson Cruz is playing in tonight’s game vs. the Red Sox.  That is just weird.
3. …the Player’s Union is on their side.  A part of me says, “this is NEVER going to happen.”  But then I remember what happened in the last strike, and what has happened in every PED decision that has happened since then and I see a Player’s Union that knows that it needs to clean up its image even to go so far as baseball now having the toughest testing policy of all the major North American team sports leagues.  More on this issue later.
4. …contracts are legally allowed to be voided.  Let me start by saying that this is the biggest stretch in this whole discussion.  It is not going to happen.  But what if it did?  For ARod to be suspended 50 or 100 games that would be a big deal.  If here lost 100 games without pay that would cost him roughly $18 million.  If his contract was voided it would cost him over $100 million.  And this is the crux of the steroid issue.  Melky Cabrera tested positive last year and served a 50 game suspension.  Let’s total up all of the money that Melky made before testing positive, and add that to the contract he has signed with the Blue Jays.  Dangle that figure in front of any high schooler, college ballplayer, or minor leaguer and tell them that they can have it, with the only negative being you may get caught and serve a 50 game suspension at some point.  Who is not going to take it?  Let’s ask this hypothetical question just for fun - imagine ARod’s  10 year $275 million contract was voided and he became a free agent; what would his next contract be worth?  Maybe the Blue Jays would take him – 2 years, $15 million tops.  And by the way, has anybody in the history of the world made more of a mess of an opportunity as golden as ARod’s?  Remember when the discussion was it didn’t matter where Bonds set the bar because Alex was going to come in right behind him and be the nice guy who will break that scumbag’s record?  

This could be a nightmare for MLB if…

1. …they pursue suspensions for 25 or so players, fight appeals from the Player’s Union, fight the battles in court, and lose.  It was a huge blow to MLB when (recently elected National League MVP) Ryan Braun won his appeal based on someone’s mishandling of his pee.  We have also seen the ineptitude of the federal government in their pursuit of Roger Clemens and even cycling inability to ever get a positive test out of Lance Armstrong.  Imagine if Bosch sings like a canary, the names of a couple dozen players are splashed all over the media, yet the courts determine that MLB can legally do nothing with his testimony.  What a disaster that would be.

Black Hole is Not a Compliment

I don’t know if I heard someone say this today or if I said it to myself based on what someone else said, but here it is:  

Carmelo Anthony will never win an NBA title on a team on which he is the best player.

I would be willing to bet my house on this statement.  There are a two factors working against Melo which make my house safe in this wager.  One of these factors is his fault, the other is not.  I have always been one to place Anthony high on the list of Players Who Are Nowhere Near As Good As Their Numbers Say.  I think he is overrated and I was never sold on the Knicks this year.  Feel free to agree or disagree with any of the points below.  And if you are willing to place your house against mine I will give you mine when he wins, and you give me yours when he retires ringless.

1.  Lebron James - It is looking like this could be one of those runs in NBA history where a lot of good players never win rings because they do not have Lebron on their team.  Durant’s chances just got set back 4 years with the Harden trade.  Howard may have missed his best chance when Orlando made it to the finals, and I don’t see his window opening anytime soon in LA.  Rose missed his best chance last year when he went down early in the playoffs.  Kyrie’s only chance is Lebron returning to Cleveland.  Steph Curry could be the new D’Antoni Suns - the guy we all love to watch but know probably won’t win it all.  Forget D-Wade’s knee.  If he doesn’t play another game this post-season I still put my money on the Heat.  It seems like the entire Western Conference would have to conspire to assemble a team to beat the Heat (which just may happen if Howard goes to Houston and a couple other guys who see their chances of winning a ring not on Lebrun’s team lie only in conspiracy).  Bill Simmons kicked around the idea of what if you switched Lebron with the best player on any of the 16 playoff teams, how many of them would you favor to win it all - he went with 9 ½.  

2.  Basketball is somewhat of a zero-sum game.  There are a finite number of shots either team is going to have in a given game.  Some coaches or system (i.e. Paul Westhead) will try to raise that number by “cheating” in other aspects of the game, but as the game stands today, the average team takes 100 shots per game.  It could be an oversimplification but it usually follows that the team that wins takes good shots and tries to force the other team to take bad shots (or fewer shots due to turnovers).  Carmelo Anthony voluntarily takes bad shots.  And to compound this problem in his current situation (and another reason my house is safe for now) is him playing on the same team as J.R. Smith.  If I were to make an all-NBA bad shots taken team it would be Anthony, Smith, Kobe, Wade, and Westbrook.  

The numbers tell us what we already know about Melo.  His 2013 playoff numbers are 28.8 PPG against 1.8 assists.  He shot a .406 FG%, had a player efficiency rating (PER - what seems to be the favorite metric of basketball metric guys) of  20.6, and had a Usage % of 38.0 (which means he used 38% of his team’s possessions).  Let’s compare those playoff numbers with the best players on the last few championship teams.  

Melo 2013 - 28.8 PPG, 1.8 APG, .406 FG%,   38.0 USG%, 20.6 PER

Lebron 2012 - 30.0 PPG, 5.6 APG, .500 FG%,  33.5 USG%, 30.3 PER

Dirk 2011 - 27.7 PPG, 2.5 APG, .485 FG%, 32.0 USG%, 25.2 PER

Kobe 2010 - 29.2 PPG, 5.5 APG, .458 FG%, 33.2 USG%, 24.7 PER

Kobe 2009 - 30.2 PPG, 5.5 APG, .457 FG%, 32.9 USG%, 26.8 PER

Jordan 1993 - 35.1 PPG, 6.0 APG, .475 FG%, 38.0 USG%, 30.1 PER

Carmelo is a gunslinger, which means he will get points.  The problem is efficiency.  Look as the usage % for Melo these playoffs - 38%!  Only one time did Jordan ever get that high, and it was in ’93.  The difference between the two players in those 2 playoffs is that ONE OF THEM IS NAMED MICHAEL JORDAN!  Contrast Melo with the championship Spurs teams (and even the Spurs of the last 2 years).  The difference is efficiency.  And in this zero-sum game, if your team gets 100 shots and my team gets 100 shots, and your team takes bad shots while my team takes good shots - I like my chances of wining.  The efficiency statistics were made for Lebron.  The difference between the two is that everyone on the opposing team fears Melo and puts extra defensive efforts on him - which often causes him to take bad shots, while Lebron uses the extra defensive attention on him to create better shots for his teammates.  When the Heat finally get challenged this series and next (I’m betting by the Spurs), the thing that is going to put them over the top is Ray Allen.  If your plan is stop Lebron and Wade then Ray Allen will be simply shooting fish in a barrel.  

Let’s just leave it at this - since 1980 (I know nothing about pre-1980 basketball) no team has won an NBA championship with a gunslinger/black hole not named Jordan or Kobe.  And Kobe was not the best player on his team for his first 3 rings, and had the best passing big man in the game, Pau, on his team for the final 2 (yes, I did mean to say final 2).  And Michael Jordan is Michael Jordan, so that pretty much takes care of that.  So the lesson learned is that if Carmelo want to win a non-olympic championship he will either have to a) be Jordan-esque, b) play for Greg Popovich, or c) join in the Western Conference conspiracy and take a 50% pay cut so he can join Chris Paul and Dwight Howard in Dallas (and then I still get to keep my house because Chris Paul would be the best player on that team).