The last 24 hours have been, for US soccer fans (and welcome aboard to everyone who has hopped onboard recently, the more the merrier) an emotional spin cycle no too dissimilar from a Gossip Girl episode. From despair (Portugal goal in the 5th minute, Ghana was a fluke), to hope (we looked fantastic the remainder of the first half), to joy (Jermaine Jones!!!), to euphoria (via Clint Dempsey’s navel), to disbelief (we are going to advance with still one more group stage match to play), to shock (Ronaldo’s one good touch in 95 minutes).
What is left is confusion - now what are we supposed to feel?
What you need to know
1. We are a better team than Portugal.
Ronaldo was not at 100%, and FIFA world rankings mean nothing (Portugal was 4th in the world entering the tournament), but we were the superior team in this match. People laughed at me when I said, before the tournament started, that this was called the “group of death” because we were in it. Ghana looked the superior team on Monday, but we scored more goals than them. We were the superior team last night - and most importantly, the boys on the pitch believed it as well, and it showed.
2. Jurgen Klinsmann has worked a masterpiece.
I will say the same even if we don’t advance. He has the boys fit, prepared, and confident. He had a perfect game plan in Jozy’s absence vs. Portugal. He has Fabian Johnson in a position that fits him perfectly as a defender who has liberty to run wild. And oh by the way, he has assembled the squad perfectly. Jermaine Jones has been the MVP of the tournament for the USA thus far (a player who Klinsmann has supported for a long time much to the dismay of many supporters), and Donovan has not been needed. My brother asked me in the 85th minute last night, “where are all the people crying for Donovan now?" My response was, “how does Jurgen say ‘bite me’ in German?”
3. The tie breaker system.
The first tie breaker is goal differential. Number 2 is goals scored. Third is head-to-head. Pretty much the only way we don’t advance is if we lose to Germany and Ghana beats Portugal in a way that either a) Ghana has a better goal differential than us (currently we are +1 and they are -1) or if that is equal b) by the end of the day Ghana has more goals scored than us (currently we have scored 4 and they have scored 3). Portugal would have to beat Ghana by 4 and us lose by 1 or more for them to advance. If we tie or win, we are through.
So here are the scenarios for us going forward. The good news and the bad news. Bad news first:
The Bad News
1. Ghana is really good - Ghana winning by 2 goals isn’t much of a stretch.
2. Germany is really good - For my money, Germany is still the best team in the tournament.
3. Portugal has little reason for optimism - The scenario which would allow them to advance is a bit outrageous and their World Footballer of the Year is hurt and is the kind of guy who looks out for #1 (my friend who was at the game last night told me that he yells for the ball every time they have it, and yells it is his teammates every time he doesn’t get it). I could easily see a scene where Ghana scores a goal early and Portugal implodes.
The Good News
1. We looked great against Portugal - Creative, confident, fast, organized, daring, resilient. Geof Cameron's shank, and Tim Howard's uncharacteristic blunder which saw the ball go right between his hands and bounce of the post were the only 2 flaws in an otherwise perfect match.
2. Germany won’t be fighting to the death - The only way Germany doesn’t advance is if they lose to us and Ghana beats Portugal in a way that is combined more than 4 goals. In fact, if the captains got together and shook hands and Dempsey told Lahm, “0-0 sounds good to us, how about you?” it would be a result that would be just fine with both sides. If this game is 0-0 in the 70th minute you are going to see the most boring 20 minutes of soccer you have ever seen (unless, of course, you are an unobjective USA supporter and you would be thrilled with a draw).
3. The European teams aren’t taking too kindly to Brazil. With the exception of the Netherlands, Belgium (drawn in the “group of life”), and France (we would have killed to have been in that group), and I would have said Germany until their tie vs. Ghana, European teams have given the appearance that the rules of the game are different in the southwestern quartersphere. England, Portugal, Spain, Bosnia (though they are the best looking 0 pt. team in the tournament), Croatia, Italy, Switzerland, Russia - all have stuggled while teams from the Americas - Mexico, Costa Rica, Chile, USA, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia - have fared well.
4. Jurgen assembled this team for this match - This team was assembled to beat Germany if it had to. FIFA rigged the draw so that Jurgen would have to play Germany. After the Portugal match Jurgen even accused FIFA of wanting the “big teams” to win by giving them an extra day of rest and a lighter travel schedule (his exact quote was, “They played yesterday. We played today. We played in the Amazon. They played in place where you don't have to travel so much. Things are set up for the big teams to move on.”) This is why there are 4 players on our roster based in the Bundesliga. We were hoping we wouldn’t need anything against Germany (and we were hoping they wouldn’t need any points against us either) but that’s not the case, but the good news is that we are prepared for it.
5. This USA team is different than any other. In our last 26 matches, dating back to mid 2013, the USMNT is 20 wins, 3 loses, and 3 draws. Our only 3 losses were at Costa Rica in a qualifying match, vs. the Ukraine in Cyprus which fell right in the crux of their political turmoil, and a friendly away at Austria. Many of the wins in that stretch are against sub-par opponents, but we have never consistently won matches that we are supposed to win. And oh by the way, one of those wins is against Germany. Granted, it was week after a Champions League final with included 2 German clubs and none of those players made the trip, but we never used to win those games.
Bottom Line - We are going through. We deserve it. We will earn it. And even if we don’t, we have lots of reasons to be proud.
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